Opinions with receipts
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Short-form opinion pieces on AI, prediction markets, business, and culture. Rated by spice level. Backed by arguments. Not for the thin-skinned.
Polls Are Dead and Pollsters Know It
The polling industry is a $5B corpse walking. Prediction markets made them obsolete in 2024 and they're surviving on institutional contracts and media relationships, not accuracy.
90% of AI Startups Will Be Dead by 2028
The AI startup bubble is as inflated as dot-com in 1999. Most AI startups are thin wrappers over API calls with no moat, no distribution, and no path to profitability.
The Remote Work Debate Is Over — Remote Won
Return-to-office mandates are a talent filter that selects for compliance over capability. The best engineers, designers, and operators work remotely and they're not going back.
Crypto Isn't Dead — It Just Got Boring (That's Good)
The crypto hype cycle ended. What's left is infrastructure that actually works: stablecoins, prediction markets on Polygon, DeFi protocols with real volume. Boring crypto is good crypto.
You Don't Need a Co-Founder (Anymore)
The YC advice to always have a co-founder was valid when one person couldn't build a product alone. AI changed that. Solo founders with AI tools ship faster than co-founder teams with coordination overhead.
A CS Degree Is Becoming a Negative Signal
Spending 4 years learning to code in a classroom while AI makes 80% of that curriculum obsolete isn't just wasteful — it signals poor judgment about where the world is heading.
X/Twitter Is Still the Best Platform for Builders
Despite all the chaos, X remains the only platform where a single post can reach a million people without paying for distribution. LinkedIn is corporate theater. Instagram is lifestyle performance. X is where ideas compete.
Traditional SaaS Is Dying — AI Ate the Business Model
Per-seat SaaS pricing made sense when each seat was a human. When one human with AI does the work of five, you're paying for 4 empty chairs. The pricing model is collapsing.
Prediction Markets Should Inform Every Congressional Vote
Before Congress votes on any bill, there should be a public prediction market on its outcomes. Let the market predict the effect of the policy. Then vote. At least lawmakers would know what the smart money thinks.
The VC Model Is Broken for 95% of Startups
VC funding is optimized for unicorn outcomes. 95% of good businesses aren't unicorns. The result: founders twist viable businesses into unicorn-shaped distortions that explode under the pressure.
AI Regulation Will Help Big Tech and Kill Startups
Every AI regulation proposed so far disproportionately burdens startups with compliance costs that Big Tech can absorb easily. Regulation is a moat, and incumbents love moats.
Individual Creators Have More Influence Than Cable News
A single creator with 500K followers has more actual influence on purchasing decisions, political views, and cultural trends than CNN's entire primetime lineup. The media power shift already happened.
Hustle Culture Is Cope for People Who Can't Think Strategically
Working 80 hours a week isn't a badge of honor — it's a confession that you can't figure out what actually matters. The hardest-working founders aren't the most successful. The most strategic ones are.
Polymarket Is the Most Undervalued Company in Crypto
Polymarket has become the de facto global prediction market platform. When it eventually has a token or IPO, it will be valued at 10-50x what anyone currently estimates.
Newsletters Are Over — Distribution Moved On
Email open rates are declining. Gmail tabs hide newsletters. The newsletter boom of 2020-2023 was a distribution arbitrage that's been arbitraged away. Build on platforms where attention lives now.
Middle Management Is Being Automated Away
The primary function of middle management — information routing, status tracking, and task coordination — is exactly what AI does best. The 'managing managers' layer of organizations is being compressed to nothing.
The Metaverse Vision Was Right — The Timing Was 10 Years Early
Meta burned $50B proving the metaverse is real and the hardware isn't ready. In 2035 when AR glasses weigh 50 grams and cost $300, everyone will live in mixed reality. Zuck was right. He was just early.
If Your Company Doesn't Have AI Agents, You're Already Behind
Deploying AI agents isn't a 2028 project. It's a right-now project. Every company that waits to 'see how it plays out' is giving a permanent head start to competitors who are building agent infrastructure today.
Google Search Is Dying and Google Knows It
AI answers are replacing search queries. Perplexity, ChatGPT with browsing, and Claude with web access are eating Google's lunch. The 10-blue-links model is dead.
Diversity of Thought Matters More Than Demographic Diversity
A room full of Stanford MBA graduates from different demographic backgrounds thinks more alike than a room with a dropout, a tradesperson, a missionary, and a farmer. Real diversity is cognitive, not visible.
Bitcoin Is Digital Gold — And That's Its Ceiling
Bitcoin will never be a payment system. It will never be programmable money. It's digital gold — a store of value for people who don't trust governments. That's valuable. It's also a ceiling.
Most Founders Should Sell Their Company Earlier Than They Think
The 'never sell' mentality destroys more founder wealth than any bad product decision. A $20M exit that changes your life is better than a $0 exit chasing a $200M dream.
Coding Bootcamps Are Dead — AI Killed Them Faster Than Expected
Why spend $15K and 12 weeks learning to code when Claude Code can teach you faster, cheaper, and with more relevant, up-to-date instruction? Bootcamps taught commodity skills. AI commoditized them further.
The Creator Economy Is a Pyramid Scheme for Most Creators
The top 1% of creators make millions. The next 9% make a living. The bottom 90% make nothing while spending time and money on courses from the top 1% about how to be in the top 1%.
Technical Founders Overvalue Technology and Undervalue Distribution
The best technology doesn't win. The best distribution wins. I've built technically superior products that lost to inferior products with better marketing. Distribution IS the product.
The Church Is 20 Years Behind on Technology (And It's Hurting the Mission)
Churches use websites from 2010, apps from 2015, and social media strategies from 2018. The institution with the most important message in human history has the worst communication infrastructure.
Prediction Markets Will Eat Traditional Financial Products
Options, futures, and derivatives are just prediction markets with legacy infrastructure. Polymarket-style markets will eventually offer the same exposure with better UX, lower fees, and 24/7 access.
Personal Brands Are More Valuable Than Company Brands
People follow people, not logos. A founder with 100K followers is worth more than a company brand with 100K followers because personal trust transfers across ventures. Company brands die with companies.
Most Tech Conferences Are a Waste of Time and Money
The talks are on YouTube. The networking is better on X. The hallway conversations can happen on Zoom. Spending $2K on tickets and $3K on travel to stand in a convention center is 2015 thinking.
The AI Safety Debate Is a Distraction From AI's Real Harms
While the industry debates hypothetical AI extinction risk, real AI harms are happening now: job displacement without retraining, algorithmic discrimination, deepfake fraud, and surveillance. The existential risk conversation crowds out the actual risk conversation.