Polls Are Dead and Pollsters Know It
Mike Smith
Spicy Level
The Take
The polling industry is a $5B corpse walking. Prediction markets made them obsolete in 2024 and they're surviving on institutional contracts and media relationships, not accuracy.
+Why I'm Right
Polymarket outperformed RCP average in 2024 by 4+ points
Poll response rates below 6% — statistically meaningless
Smart money tracking provides better signal than any survey
Media outlets are already citing market odds more than polls
?The Counter-Argument
“Polls measure public opinion on issues without tradeable outcomes. Prediction markets only work for binary events. Both have a role — but for forecasting, markets win.”
Agree? Disagree? Tell me.
@MikeSmithShow on X. I respond to good arguments.
Weekly Signal
Get my market takes before everyone else.
More Hot Takes
Prediction Markets Should Inform Every Congressional Vote
Before Congress votes on any bill, there should be a public prediction market on its outcomes. Let the market predict the effect of the policy. Then vote. At least lawmakers would know what the smart money thinks.
Polymarket Is the Most Undervalued Company in Crypto
Polymarket has become the de facto global prediction market platform. When it eventually has a token or IPO, it will be valued at 10-50x what anyone currently estimates.
Prediction Markets Will Eat Traditional Financial Products
Options, futures, and derivatives are just prediction markets with legacy infrastructure. Polymarket-style markets will eventually offer the same exposure with better UX, lower fees, and 24/7 access.