90% of AI Startups Will Be Dead by 2028
Mike Smith
Spicy Level
The Take
The AI startup bubble is as inflated as dot-com in 1999. Most AI startups are thin wrappers over API calls with no moat, no distribution, and no path to profitability.
+Why I'm Right
Most AI startups use the same models everyone has access to
Margins on API-wrapper businesses trend to zero
The models themselves are the product — the wrappers are packaging
History rhymes: 90% of dot-com startups died too
?The Counter-Argument
“Some AI startups have genuine moats: proprietary data, domain expertise, network effects. The 10% that survive could be enormous. The challenge is picking them.”
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