Prediction Marketsactive
A Prediction Market ETF or Index Fund Will Launch by 2027
MS
Mike Smith
ConfidenceLow
45%
0%50%100%
The Prediction
A regulated ETF or index fund that provides exposure to prediction market outcomes (either directly or through prediction market platform equity) will be available to US retail investors by end of 2027.
Made
Feb 22, 2026
Resolves
Dec 30, 2027
657 days until resolution
Supporting Evidence
1
Financial product innovation follows wherever volume goes
2
Crypto ETFs set a precedent for novel asset class ETFs
3
Kalshi's regulated status provides a foundation for structured products
4
Retail investor demand for prediction market exposure is growing
Think I'm wrong? Let me know.
@MikeSmithShow on X. I track my predictions publicly.
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