Prediction Marketsactive
The US Will Pass Federal Prediction Market Legislation by 2028
MS
Mike Smith
ConfidenceModerate
55%
0%50%100%
The Prediction
Congress will pass legislation specifically addressing prediction markets — either legalizing them under CFTC oversight or creating a new regulatory framework — before the end of 2028.
Made
Mar 10, 2026
Resolves
Dec 30, 2028
1023 days until resolution
Supporting Evidence
1
Bipartisan interest in prediction markets is growing
2
Kalshi legal victories set precedent for regulatory frameworks
3
State-level patchwork is creating pressure for federal action
4
Prediction market lobbying spend increased 400% in 2025
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