AI & Technologyactive
Open Source AI Will Match GPT-4 Level by Mid-2027
MS
Mike Smith
ConfidenceVery High
85%
0%50%100%
The Prediction
The best open-source model will match or exceed GPT-4 (early 2024 version) performance on standard benchmarks by July 2027.
Made
Mar 6, 2026
Resolves
Jun 30, 2027
474 days until resolution
Supporting Evidence
1
Meta's Llama models are closing the gap each release
2
DeepSeek showed dramatic improvement trajectories
3
Open source community iterates faster on existing architectures
4
The gap between open and closed has consistently narrowed
Think I'm wrong? Let me know.
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Weekly Signal