AI & Technologyactive
GPT-5 Will Score Above 90% on the Bar Exam
MS
Mike Smith
ConfidenceVery High
80%
0%50%100%
The Prediction
The next major GPT release (GPT-5 or equivalent) will score above 90th percentile on the Uniform Bar Examination, up from GPT-4's ~90th percentile.
Made
Mar 9, 2026
Resolves
Jun 29, 2027
473 days until resolution
Supporting Evidence
1
Model capability improvement has been consistent and predictable
2
Legal reasoning is a strength of large language models
3
Training data improvements specifically target professional exam performance
4
Competing models are already approaching this threshold
Think I'm wrong? Let me know.
@MikeSmithShow on X. I track my predictions publicly.
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